{"id":74190,"date":"2016-11-07T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2016-11-06T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/tnr.com.tw\/2016\/11\/07\/no10%e5%8d%81%e4%b8%80%e6%9c%88%e5%88%8a3-8%e9%81%b8%e6%b0%91%e5%8f%af%e6%92%bc%e5%8b%95%e4%b8%96%e7%95%8c\/"},"modified":"2016-11-07T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2016-11-06T16:00:00","slug":"no10%e5%8d%81%e4%b8%80%e6%9c%88%e5%88%8a3-8%e9%81%b8%e6%b0%91%e5%8f%af%e6%92%bc%e5%8b%95%e4%b8%96%e7%95%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tnr.com.tw\/?p=74190","title":{"rendered":"No10(\u5341\u4e00\u6708\u520a)3.8%\u9078\u6c11\u53ef\u64bc\u52d5\u4e16\u754c"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u6416\u64fa\u5dde\u6c7a\u5b9a\u7f8e\u570b\u672a\u4f86<\/strong>10<\/strong>\u5e74\u8d70\u5411<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u9078\u8209\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u7279\u8272<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\u4eca\u5e74\u5341\u4e00\u6708\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6700\u4ee4\u4eba\u77da\u76ee\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u83ab\u904e\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u5927\u9078\u3002\u8207\u5176\u8aaa\u662f\u5168\u570b\u9078\u8209\uff0c\u4e0d\u5982\u8aaa\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u5404\u5dde\u9078\u8209\u3002\u5b83\u4e0d\u50cf\u53f0\u7063\u4ee5\u6578\u4eba\u982d\u7684\u666e\u9078\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4ee5\u5dde\u70ba\u55ae\u4f4d\uff0c\u52a0\u7e3d\u5404\u5dde\u7684\u9078\u8209\u4eba\u7968\u6578\u4f86\u6c7a\u5b9a\u7e3d\u7d71\u7576\u9078\u4eba\u3002\u5168\u7f8e\u4e94\u5341\u5dde\u52a0\u4e0a\u54e5\u502b\u6bd4\u4e9e\u7279\u5340\uff0c\u5171\u6709\u4e94\u767e\u4e09\u5341\u516b\u5f35\u9078\u8209\u4eba\u7968\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u62ff\u4e0b\u5169\u767e\u4e03\u5341\u5f35\u9078\u7968\uff0c\u5373\u53ef\u7be4\u5b9a\u7576\u9078\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u570b\u5404\u5dde\u6709\u5176\u7279\u8272\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u81ea\u884c\u6c7a\u5b9a\u9078\u6c11\u7684\u6295\u7968\u8cc7\u683c\u8207\u6295\u7968\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7acb\u6cd5\u898f\u7bc4\u4e0d\u5728\u7c4d\u6295\u7968\u6216\u63d0\u524d\u6295\u7968\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u6709\u4e94\u5341\u5dde\uff0c\u4f46\u6839\u64daSchultz\u8207Hecht\u7b49\u5b78\u8005\u65bc\u53bb\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u65b0\u66f8\u300aPresidential Swing States: Why Only Ten Matter\u300b\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u6c7a\u5b9a\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u5927\u9078\u7684\u5dde\u5176\u5be6\u53ea\u6709\u5341\u500b\uff0c\u5373\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u6416\u64fa\u5dde\uff08swing state\uff09\u3002\u5176\u4ed680%\u7684\u5dde\u6b77\u5e74\u5c6c\u65bc\u7a69\u5b9a\u652f\u6301\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u6216\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u7684\u300c\u5b89\u5168\u5dde\u300d\uff08safe states\uff09\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u7d10\u7d04\u8207\u52a0\u5dde\u70ba\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u7684\u5927\u7968\u5009\uff1b\u800c\u5fb7\u5dde\u3001\u5967\u514b\u62c9\u8377\u99ac\u5dde\u3001\u61f7\u4fc4\u660e\u5dde\u70ba\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u7684\u5927\u7968\u5009\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u7af6\u722d\u4e0d\u6fc0\u70c8\uff0c\u5b89\u5168\u5dde\u7684\u9078\u60c5\u901a\u5e38\u51b7\u6e05\uff0c\u5169\u9ee8\u5019\u9078\u4eba\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6703\u52e4\u8dd1\u7576\u5730\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

2016<\/strong>\u5e74\u9078\u8209<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6416\u64fa\u5dde\u7684\u6c7a\u5b9a\u5c07\u5f71\u97ff\u7f8e\u570b\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5341\u5e74<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u76f8\u5c0d\u65bc\u5b89\u5168\u5dde\uff0c\u5269\u4e0b\u7684\u5341\u500b\u6416\u64fa\u5dde\u624d\u662f\u5f71\u97ff\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u3002\u5b78\u8005Schultz\u9810\u6e2c\u9019\u5341\u500b\u6416\u64fa\u5dde\u88e1\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u4e0d\u5230\u4e8c\u5341\u500b\u90e1\uff0c\u5927\u7d04\u4e94\u5341\u842c\u4eba\u6c7a\u5b9a\u5927\u9078\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u82e5\u4ee5130\u767e\u842c\u6295\u7968\u4eba\u53e3\u63a8\u4f30\uff0c\u7d04\u53603.8%\u3002\u5b83\u771f\u6b63\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4e86\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u5927\u9078\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u570b\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u8d70\u5411\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u65b0\u4efb\u7e3d\u7d71\u5c07\u63d0\u540d\u4fdd\u5b88\u6d3e\u5927\u6cd5\u5b98\u53f2\u5361\u5229\u4e9e\uff08Antonin Scalia\uff09\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u4e8c\u6708\u904e\u4e16\u5f8c\u907a\u7559\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684\u7a7a\u7f3a\u3002\u5728\u76ee\u524d\u81ea\u7531\u6d3e\u8207\u4fdd\u5b88\u6d3e\u5927\u6cd5\u5b98\u70ba\u56db\u6bd4\u56db\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u65b0\u4efb\u5927\u6cd5\u5b98\u5c07\u5de6\u53f3\u7f8e\u570b\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e7e\u5e74\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u722d\u8b70\u8b70\u984c\u8d70\u5411\u3002\u66f4\u4f55\u6cc1\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u5e74\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u6709\u4e00\u81f3\u5169\u4f4d\u5927\u6cd5\u5b98\u9000\u4f11\u3002\u65b0\u7e3d\u7d71\u4efb\u5167\u53ef\u80fd\u7e3d\u5171\u63d0\u540d\u591a\u9054\u4e09\u4f4d\u5927\u6cd5\u5b98\uff0c\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u5c07\u662f\u597d\u5e7e\u4ee3\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u9078\u6c11\u6df1\u77e5\u9019\u5834\u9078\u6230\u9078\u7684\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u7e3d\u7d71\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u5927\u6cd5\u5b98\u63d0\u540d\u6b0a\u3002\u8abf\u67e5\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u9ad8\u905465%\u9078\u6c11\u6703\u628a\u5927\u6cd5\u5b98\u63d0\u540d\u4f5c\u70ba\u6295\u7968\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4f9d\u64da\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u4eca\u5e74\u6416\u64fa\u5dde\u9078\u6c11\u7684\u6289\u64c7\uff0c\u610f\u7fa9\u5341\u5206\u91cd\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\u4ec0\u9ebc\u662f\u6416\u64fa\u5dde\uff1f<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\u7f8e\u570b\u904e\u53bb\u9078\u8209\u4e5f\u6709\u6416\u64fa\u5dde\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u70ba\u9019\u73fe\u8c61\u547d\u540d\u5247\u662f20\u4e16\u7d00\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u8a72\u8a5e\u9996\u6b21\u51fa\u73fe\u65bc1936\u5e74\uff0c\u70ba\u7d10\u7d04\u6642\u5831\u6240\u5275\u3002\u4e4b\u5f8c\u768450\u5e74\u9593\uff0c\u5076\u800c\u88ab\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u4f46\u4f7f\u7528\u983b\u7387\u4e0d\u9ad8\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u70ba\u6416\u64fa\u5dde\u5728\u7576\u6642\u5f88\u5e38\u898b\uff0c\u5c0d\u9078\u8209\u7d50\u679c\u6c92\u90a3\u9ebc\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u6416\u64fa\u5dde\u4e00\u8a5e\u958b\u59cb\u983b\u7e41\u4f7f\u7528\uff0c\u5247\u59cb\u65bc2000\u5e74\u7e3d\u7d71\u5927\u9078\u4e2d\uff0c\u7d10\u7d04\u6642\u5831\u8a18\u8005Richard Perez-Pena\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u30022004\u5e74\u9078\u8209\u624d\u958b\u59cb\u88ab\u5ee3\u70ba\u65b0\u805e\u8a18\u8005\u4f7f\u7528\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u4eca\u65e5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e00\u822c\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6416\u64fa\u5dde\u6307\u7684\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u8207\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u7af6\u722d\u6fc0\u70c8\u7684\u5dde\uff0c\u800c\u96d9\u65b9\u7684\u5f97\u7968\u7387\u76f8\u5dee\u57285%\u4ee5\u5167\uff0c\u5448\u73fe\u4e94\u4e94\u6ce2\u7684\u614b\u52e2\u3002Schultz\u8207Hecht\u7b49\u5b78\u8005\u5f9e1988-2012\u5e74\u9593\u7e3d\u7d71\u9078\u8209\u4e2d\uff0c\u9078\u51fa\u7b26\u5408\u4ee5\u4e0b\u56db\u500b\u7279\u8cea\u7684\u5dde\u4f86\u754c\u5b9a\u6416\u64fa\u5dde\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\uff08\u4e00\uff09\u7af6\u722d\u6027\uff1a\u8a72\u5dde\u7684\u9078\u8209\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u96d9\u65b9\u5dee\u8ddd\u57285%\u4ee5\u5167\u3002\uff08\u4e8c\uff09\u9810\u6e2c\u5dde\uff08bellwether\uff09\uff1a\u8a72\u5dde\u4ff1\u6709\u5982\u7ae0\u9b5a\u54e5\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u6027\u3002\u4ea6\u5373\u8d0f\u5f97\u8a72\u5dde\u7684\u5019\u9078\u4eba\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u5c31\u662f\u8a72\u6b21\u7684\u7e3d\u7d71\u7576\u9078\u4eba\u3002\uff08\u4e09\uff09\u7ffb\u8f49\u6027\uff1a\u76f8\u8f03\u5176\u4ed6\u5dde\uff0c\u8a72\u5dde\u5bb9\u6613\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u9078\u8209\u6539\u8b8a\u5b83\u652f\u6301\u7684\u653f\u9ee8\u3002\uff08\u56db\uff09\u6fc0\u6230\u5dde\uff1a\u6307\u7684\u662f\u5728\u4e0a\u4e00\u5c46\u7e3d\u7d71\u9078\u8209\u4e2d\uff0c\u5019\u9078\u4eba\u7372\u5f97\u9ee8\u4ee3\u8868\u5927\u6703\u63d0\u540d\u5f8c\uff0c\u53bb\u8a72\u5dde\u9020\u52e2\u6d3b\u52d5\u7684\u6b21\u6578\u3002\u5169\u9ee8\u5019\u9078\u4eba\u53bb\u8a72\u5dde\u7684\u6b21\u6578\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u8a72\u5dde\u662f\u6fc0\u6230\u5dde\u3002\u7b26\u5408\u9019\u56db\u9805\u7684\u5373\u70ba\u6416\u64fa\u5dde\u3002\u5728\u6b77\u5e74\u7684\u6416\u64fa\u5dde\u88e1\uff0c\u4fc4\u4ea5\u4fc4\u5dde\u548c\u4f5b\u7f85\u91cc\u9054\u5dde\u53c8\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u5dde\u66f4\u6416\u64fa\u3002\u6b64\u6b21\u5927\u9078\u4e2d\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f8b\u5916\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\u4fc4\u4ea5\u4fc4\u5dde\uff1a\u6fc0\u6230\u5dde\u4e2d\u7684\u6fc0\u6230\u5dde<\/strong><\/h3>\n

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\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u80fd\u5920\u7ffb\u8f49\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u7684\u9577\u671f\u57f7\u653f\uff0c\u5728\u65bc\u4e09\u9805\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u5176\u4e00\u70ba\u4e16\u4e16\u4ee3\u4ee3\u5c45\u4f4f\u5728\u4f5b\u5dde\u7684\u7576\u5730\u4eba\u4ee5\u53ca\u53e4\u5df4\u9078\u6c11\uff0c\u9010\u6f38\u5f9e\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u8f49\u5411\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u3002\u53e4\u5df4\u88d4\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u8f49\u5411\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u6709\u5169\u500b\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u9996\u5148\u70ba1961\u5e74\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u7e3d\u7d71\u7518\u8ffa\u8fea\u767c\u52d5\u63a8\u7ffb\u53e4\u5df4\u7e3d\u7d71\u5361\u65af\u695a\u7684\u8c6c\u7063\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u4ee5\u5931\u6557\u544a\u7d42\u3002\u53e4\u5df4\u793e\u7fa4\u56e0\u6b64\u89ba\u5f97\u906d\u53d7\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u7684\u80cc\u53db\u3002\u5f8c\u4f86\u96f7\u6839\u7e3d\u7d71\u57f7\u653f\u6642\uff0c\u5176\u5f37\u786c\u7684\u53cd\u5171\u7522\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7acb\u5834\uff0c\u5c0d\u53e4\u5df4\u6d41\u4ea1\u793e\u7fa4\u6709\u6975\u5927\u5171\u9cf4\uff0c\u4fc3\u6210\u53e4\u5df4\u793e\u7fa4\u7684\u8f49\u5411\u3002\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u512a\u52e2\u70ba\u8a31\u591a\u8a8d\u540c\u4fdd\u5b88\u6d3e\u7684\u9000\u4f11\u8ecd\u4eba\u3001\u9000\u4f11\u4eba\u58eb\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f86\u81ea\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u7684\u79fb\u6c11\u9077\u5f80\u4f5b\u5dde\u897f\u5cb8\u3002\u4f5b\u5dde\u56e0\u70ba\u6c23\u5019\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f4e\u7a05\u7387\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u9000\u4f11\u4eba\u53e3\u591a\u3002\u4f7f\u5f97\u8001\u5e74\u6295\u7968\u3001\u91ab\u7642\u4fdd\u96aa\u3001\u793e\u6703\u5b89\u5168\u798f\u5229\u6210\u70ba\u4e3b\u8981\u8b70\u984c\u3002\u800c\u9019\u4e9b\u8001\u5e74\u4eba\u4e5f\u5927\u591a\u652f\u6301\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4f5b\u5dde\u6709\u4e8c\u5341\u4e00\u500b\u8ecd\u4e8b\u57fa\u5730\u3002\u5305\u62ec\u4f4d\u5728\u5766\u5e15\uff08Tampa\uff09\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u4e2d\u592e\u6307\u63ee\u90e8\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u9081\u963f\u5bc6\u7684\u5357\u65b9\u6307\u63ee\u90e8\u3002\u9019\u8b93\u4fdd\u5b88\u6d3e\u9078\u6c11\u5c07\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u8207\u8ecd\u5099\u8996\u70ba\u91cd\u8981\u8b70\u984c\u3002\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u7684\u7b2c\u4e09\u500b\u512a\u52e2\u70ba\u7d44\u7e54\u8207\u52df\u6b3e\u80fd\u529b\u548c\u9078\u5340\u5283\u5206\u3002\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u5728\u5dde\u8b70\u6703\u53d6\u5f97\u57f7\u653f\u512a\u52e2\u5f8c\uff0c\u900f\u904e\u91cd\u65b0\u9078\u5340\u5283\u5206\uff0c\u4e26\u900f\u904e\u5f37\u5927\u7684\u52df\u6b3e\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u6301\u7e8c\u978f\u56fa\u5728\u4f5b\u5dde\u5730\u65b9\u9078\u8209\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u6416\u64fa\u5340\uff1a\u4e2d\u4f5b\u5dde\u7684\u8de8\u5dde\u56db\u865f\u8d70\u5eca<\/strong><\/h3>\n

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